Data investigation

The One Place People Felt Better

No obesity drug improved general quality of life across 43 trials. Both heart failure trials produced large symptom improvements. Those findings are not in conflict, and the reason is worth understanding.

By Nora Bissett · Pricing Editor
Editorially reviewed (not clinically reviewed). Not medical advice · How we verify contentLast reviewed
8 min read·2 citations

Across 43 trials and 45,663 participants, no obesity drug improved quality of life enough for patients to notice. In two trials of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, both drugs produced large improvements on a symptom score.[1][2] Those findings look contradictory and are not, and the reason is worth understanding — it is about which question the questionnaire asks.

What these trials measured

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is a condition where the heart pumps normally but cannot fill properly, and in its obesity-related form it produces breathlessness, exhaustion and a shrinking radius of what someone can do. Until recently nothing was approved to treat it.

Both trials used the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire as a primary endpoint — a score from 0 to 100 built specifically from the symptoms and physical limitations of heart failure. Higher is better, and a difference of roughly five points is generally treated as the smallest a patient would notice.

Two separate randomized trials. Each is compared against its own placebo arm, not against the other.
STEP-HFpEF[1]SUMMIT[2]
DrugSemaglutide 2.4 mgTirzepatide up to 15 mg
Participants529731
Symptom score difference+7.8 (95% CI 4.8–10.9)+6.9 (3.3–10.6)
Weight change−13.3% vs −2.6%—
6-minute walk distance+20.3 m (8.6–32.1)—
Inflammation (CRP)−43.5% vs −7.3%—
Serious adverse events13.3% vs 26.7%—
Death or worsening heart failure—9.9% vs 15.3%, HR 0.62 (0.41–0.95)

Both symptom differences clear the threshold for a change patients notice, and both were highly significant. In STEP-HFpEF the row that stands out is the last one for that column: serious adverse events occurred half as often on the drug — 13.3% against 26.7% — which in this population largely means heart failure events.

One number that falls short. The 6-minute walk distance improved by 20.3 meters against placebo, and the difference usually treated as clinically important is around 30. It is a real, statistically solid improvement that sits below the threshold people generally use, and the symptom score is the stronger finding of the two.

Why this is not a contradiction

Elsewhere we have reported, twice, that these drugs do not improve quality of life — across 262 trials, no agent cleared the threshold, and in the head-to-head trial the mental component did not move in either arm.

Those studies used general health surveys. These used a disease-specific one. A general instrument asks how your life is going, and averages across everything that bears on that. The Kansas City questionnaire asks how breathless you are climbing stairs, how often swelling wakes you, how far your heart failure has narrowed what you do. In a disease the drug actually treats, the specific instrument finds what the general one dilutes to nothing.

That resolves the apparent conflict and narrows the claim in a useful way. There is no good evidence that these drugs make people feel better in general. There is good evidence that in obesity-related heart failure they relieve the symptoms of that condition — which is a smaller, more specific, and better-supported statement.

Feeling better in general and feeling less breathless are different questions, and only one of them has been answered yes.

Decompose the composite

SUMMIT’s headline outcome was a composite — cardiovascular death or a worsening heart failure event — and it came in at a hazard ratio of 0.62. Composites should always be taken apart, and this one comes apart in an instructive way.

SUMMIT’s composite endpoint, by component.[2]
ComponentTirzepatidePlaceboHazard ratio
Worsening heart failure29 (8.0%)52 (14.2%)0.54 (0.34–0.85)
Cardiovascular death8 (2.2%)5 (1.4%)1.58 (0.52–4.83)

The benefit is carried entirely by worsening heart failure events. The mortality component points the other way — more cardiovascular deaths on the drug than on placebo.

Thirteen deaths in total, and a confidence interval running from 0.52 to 4.83. That establishes nothing whatsoever, in either direction, and it would be as wrong to call this a mortality signal as to ignore it. What it does show is that a composite reported alone can conceal a hard component moving against the drug — the general problem is in a composite is only its components.

Adverse events led 6.3% of the tirzepatide group to stop, against 1.4% on placebo — mainly gastrointestinal, as everywhere in this class.

What these two trials do not do

  • They do not compare the drugs. Two separate trials, different populations, different placebo arms. A comparison exists and is observational — and found no meaningful difference between them.
  • They enrolled people with obesity — a BMI of 30 or more — so they speak to obesity-related heart failure specifically.
  • STEP-HFpEF ran 52 weeks; SUMMIT followed people a median of 104. Neither is long for a chronic condition.
  • Each was funded by the maker of its drug, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly respectively.

Frequently Asked Questions

Both randomized trials found large improvements in heart failure symptoms — 7.8 points on the Kansas City questionnaire with semaglutide and 6.9 with tirzepatide, where about five points is the smallest difference patients notice. Tirzepatide also reduced a composite of cardiovascular death or worsening heart failure.
Both. Those studies used general health surveys, which average across everything in a life. These used a questionnaire built from heart failure symptoms specifically. In a disease the drug treats, a specific instrument finds what a general one dilutes.
No. Its composite benefit came entirely from fewer worsening heart failure events. Cardiovascular deaths were 8 on the drug against 5 on placebo — thirteen events in total, with a confidence interval far too wide to establish anything either way.
In STEP-HFpEF, serious adverse events occurred in 13.3% on semaglutide against 26.7% on placebo — half as often. In this population those are largely heart failure events.
These two trials cannot answer that, being separate studies with their own populations and placebo arms. An observational comparison of the two found no meaningful difference on hard outcomes.

References

  1. 1.Kosiborod MN, Abildstrøm SZ, Borlaug BA, et al. Semaglutide in Patients with Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction and Obesity The New England Journal of Medicine. 2023. PMID: 37622681.
  2. 2.Packer M, Zile MR, Kramer CM, et al. Tirzepatide for Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction and Obesity The New England Journal of Medicine. 2025. PMID: 39555826.

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